#: locale=en
## Action
### URL
LinkBehaviour_AAF29E91_B895_9B28_41D6_C60798198D30.source = https://www.sibylline.co.uk/
## Media
### Title
model_B8A86FC5_DFD2_7A84_41C9_7BFAD5D90168.label = GLOBE
album_E06B94FF_DCF2_2E83_41E2_4928F035A33E_0.label = help_001
photo_FFD50B4F_F1BB_8F99_41B3_EBD829C51000.label = help_002
photo_FFD50B4F_F1BB_8F99_41B3_EBD829C51000.label = help_002
album_E06B94FF_DCF2_2E83_41E2_4928F035A33E_2.label = help_003
album_E06B94FF_DCF2_2E83_41E2_4928F035A33E.label = help_info
## Skin
### Button
Button_ACA7BB92_B9F6_BD2A_41DB_AFE4D74232A5.label = APAC
Button_ACC32F8E_B9F7_B53A_41BA_EE604B0448AF.label = Americas
Button_ACBE9E7D_B9F2_F7DE_41D3_0AA4830EF96F.label = Criminal
Button_ACB6F95C_B9F6_BDDD_41E3_1F3A5F412114.label = Europe & Eurasia
Button_ACBCE830_B9F6_BB66_41A2_DFD0387D4EEC.label = Global Risks
Button_ACB53F76_B9F2_F5EA_41E3_A7F19DAEEF25.label = Governance
Button_AC46D6DE_B9F6_B4DA_41E5_0B39B446EB9B.label = MEA
Button_AC41D7E7_B9F2_F4EB_41E1_A7E03F85978F.label = Political
Button_ACABE057_B9F2_8B2B_41A7_071CDC6C72E5.label = Security
### Image
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### Multiline Text
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HTMLText_C46A076C_DCB2_2B84_41E8_5A21F87A1D97.html = European divestment and de-risking
ASTRA Risk: Political
Efforts to de-risk European economies, including issues around ongoing dependency on Chinese imports and Russian energy.
Also affects: Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Poland, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, Serbia, Bulgaria &Romania.
HTMLText_CF5FA70F_DCB6_6B84_41E9_740E9B287851.html = Future of the Caliphate
ASTRA Risk: Security
Islamic State and affiliates continue to carry out a resilient insurgency, sustaining security volatility and physical risks.
Also affects: Iraq.
HTMLText_8E1C58C6_CFC2_E12C_41D3_E3CACA742625.html = Limited capacity to address severe weather events and natural disasters
ASTRA Risk: Political
Increasing threats emanating from extreme weather events including droughts, floods, wild fires and earthquakes, and limited financial capacity to prepare and quickly recover from such events.
Also affects: Morocco, Libya & Syria.
HTMLText_C5006311_DC52_2B9C_41E0_58EDA19ACE40.html = Opposition unrest in Senegal
ASTRA Risk: Political
Unrest among PASTEF and Ousmane Sonko supporters ahead of the February 2024 polls.
HTMLText_C1073309_DC5E_6B8C_41E9_9583432FB714.html = 2024 US elections.
ASTRA Risk: Political
Presidential, state and local elections raise political polarisation, social tensions and likelihood of unrest; major policy shifts likely; possibility of contested electoral outcomes.
Also affects: Mexico, El Salvador, Panama, Venezuela, Dominican Republic & Paraguay.
HTMLText_C603DC34_D886_2666_41E3_11B4423DEE2C.html = Amazon Green Crisis.
ASTRA Risk: Political
Surge in climate related events affecting the Amazon Basin.
Also affects: Colombia, Ecuador & Venezuela.
HTMLText_C4474FF3_DC76_1A9C_41C1_5B287E3391DC.html = Broadening national security concept.
ASTRA Risk: Governance
Widening concerns relating to national security driven by competing geopolitical order.
Also affects: USA, EU, UK, Australia, Taiwan, Hong Kong & India.
HTMLText_C5CEF895_DCBE_E684_41D9_BA7B52AFE7AA.html = CBRN escalation and proliferation
ASTRA Risk: Security
The risk of chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) escalation in the war in Ukraine, as well as other global hotspots like North Korea and Iran.
Also affects: North Korea, Iran, Ukraine, Israel, United States, United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, France & China.
HTMLText_FE88A3A7_D2C8_AEA0_41CB_A38516F59230.html = Captagon crisis
ASTRA Risk: Criminality
Uptick in trafficking, arrests and seizures underscores continued to foster instability.
HTMLText_CB311538_DCF6_EF8C_41DE_064486B952E1.html = Changing Face of Peacekeeping
ASTRA Risk: Security
Continued tensions between peacekeeping forces and host governments, particularly those allied with PMCs. The rise in regional peacekeeping efforts and increasingly aggressive/partisan mandates for deployed forces, particularly states with low military capacity.
Also affects: Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia & South Sudan.
HTMLText_CB8C61DA_DCCE_668C_41D5_DF5A1905649E.html = China's economic slowdown
ASTRA Risk: Political, Governance.
China's lacklustre post-pandemic recovery, with the economy facing series of domestic, external challenges, compounded by structural problems
HTMLText_C74A624A_D2D8_A9E0_41E9_D4ECCFADED84.html = China's economic slowdown
ASTRA RISK: Political & Governance
China's lacklustre post-pandemic recovery, with the economy facing series of domestic, external challenges, compounded by structural problems
HTMLText_C62BCA66_D882_62E2_41AB_C4EA461C5051.html = China-India border disputes shaping bilateral relations.
ASTRA Risk: Security
Sustained tensions and occasional clashes/escalation at Line of Actual Control (LAC) which could deteriorate bilateral relations, affecting trade and investment.
Also affects: India.
HTMLText_C4829CF6_DCB2_1E84_41E7_894306C49D34.html = China-US competition for influence in APAC.
ASTAR Risk: Security
China and the US (and its allies) competing for geopolitical, economic and security influence in the Asia-Pacific region .
Also affects: USA, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan & Solomon Islands.
HTMLText_C6500FA2_D882_6263_41D7_34931D3CFEB1.html = China-US tech competition.
ASTRA Risk: Political
US curb on key tech, and tit-for-tat measures from China.
Also affects: USA, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan & Netherlands.
HTMLText_FE9142AB_D248_6EA1_41E2_852CB443EAC5.html = Complex migration challenges in the Middle East and Africa
ASTRA Risk: Governance
Humanitarian and complex crises, as well as climate-related events will drive the internal (and external) displacement/movement of people within sustaining pressures on host communities and increasing the likelihood of instability.
HTMLText_F0CA0355_CFC2_A72C_41DC_DD0F464407A5.html = Corruption in Africa's Energy Sector
ASTRA Risk: Political
Repeated blackouts caused by heavy indebtedness and poor management of South Africa and Nigeria's power grids.
HTMLText_CFF54ED3_D886_2222_41E5_873A3DC1B617.html = Cross-strait Tensions.
ASTRA Risk: Security
Tensions in the Taiwan Strait and risk of armed conflict over Taiwan.
Also affects: USA, Taiwan & Japan.
HTMLText_C4318157_D2C8_ABE0_4188_86C8F3A8A2F3.html = Data Protection regulations
ASTRA RISK: Cyber
Data protection regulations being implemented as laws in more countries/US states, increases financial penalties for data breaches.
HTMLText_CE48BA91_DC56_FA9F_41CD_54D40CBAF62D.html = Democratic backsliding, rise of strongmen in SSA
ASTRA Risk: Security
The rise of military governments and resulting instability associated with that trend.
Also affects: Burkina Faso.
HTMLText_E990D1A3_CDC2_A36B_41E3_AEFCA45BA252.html = Deteriorating governance standards in Europe and Eurasia
ASTRA Risk: Governance
Democratic backsliding, ailing governance standards and precarious reform programmes as they impact European integration efforts and business environment
Also affects: Armenia, Ukraine, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Russia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Montenegro, Albania & Serbia.
HTMLText_CF7031B5_DCB1_E684_4199_3E751CCBAE3E.html = Drone loitering munitions proliferation
ASTRA Risk: Security
Uptick in the use of drones in several theatres including Yemen, as well as in the maritime sphere in the Gulf.
Also affects: Yemen, Lebanon, Israel & Saudi Arabia.
HTMLText_C13D5BCF_DC56_7A84_41E0_0DC9A7F3BCAE.html = Drug crisis in the United States.
ASTRA Risk: Political
Prevalent drug use/abuse impacts socio-economic health; concerns over drug trafficking/production; impacts bilateral relations with Mexico, China.
Also affects: Mexico & China.
HTMLText_C5FBCBF7_D88E_61E2_41D3_E61784F965A7.html = Drug production surge.
ASTRA Risk: Criminal
Large uptick in narcotics production stemming from ongoing Peace Process in Colombia.
Also affects: United States, Peru & Mexico.
HTMLText_C4132465_DCB6_6D87_41E8_1BBA2FBC2368.html = Enduring implications of Brexit
ASTRA Risk: Political
Brexit-specific developments, impacting both the UK, Ireland and EU.
Also affects: Ireland, France, Germany & Belgium.
HTMLText_C7E23B3D_D886_6261_418C_FB1E6FCEB59A.html = European migrant crisis
ASTRA Risk: Security
Uptick in illegal migrants drives internal EU divisions, threat of xenophobic attacks.
Also affects: Greece, Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Hungary, Austria, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia & United Kingdom.
HTMLText_C47E9FDC_DCD2_1A84_41DE_0AB2462C3FC4.html = Evolving geopolitical dynamics in Northeast Asia
ASTRA Risk: Security
Northeast Asia faces a variety and complex security issues, including territorial disputes, growing naval presence and North Korea's missile and nuclear threats among others.
Also affects: South Korea, China, Japan, USA & Taiwan.
HTMLText_C3636C4C_DDB2_1D84_41E8_C6F44575C173.html = Expanding securitisation of commerce and trade
ASTRA RISK: Political
Broadening national security concerns amid evolving geopolitical tensions increasingly affect economic activities.
Also affects: Japan, US, Hong Kong, Taiwan & EU.
HTMLText_CA638D4D_D2C8_9BE0_41C6_0E98290B1B61.html = Exploitation of software vulnerabilities
ASTRA RISK: Cyber
Increased utilisation of vulnerabilitites and zero-day vulnerabilities as an attack vector by various threat actors to sustain operations.
HTMLText_8DB7F0E1_CFC2_A2E4_41E2_3086766287D4.html = Factional conflict in Sudan
ASTRA Risk: Security
Failure to manage integration of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) into military results in conflict between RSF and military.
HTMLText_F14D1976_CFC1_A3EC_41CB_2D5CE68F5261.html = Fallout from Somalia's al-Shabaab campaign
ASTRA Risk: Security
Tracking the risks emanating from Somalia's offensive efforts against al-Shabaab, intensifying levels of conflict as the group attempts to counter offensive operations.
Also affects: Ethiopia & Kenya.
HTMLText_C69FEFE3_D882_21E2_41BA_B74A53DE898F.html = Far-right insurrection and civil unrest
ASTRA Risk: Security
Continued uptick in anti-state far-right extremism and disruptive civil unrest.
Also affects: France.
HTMLText_F3EB5636_CFCF_A16C_41DC_12417CDFF2C6.html = Freedom and religion driving tensions between Western and Islamic world
ASTRA Risk: Security
Tracking threat of unrest, attacks, policy risk and regional tensions driven by acts deemed blasphemous by Islamic world.
Also affects: Turkey, Egypt, Sweden, Netherlands & Denmark.
HTMLText_E8D97A2D_C823_3BD2_41C7_F00FA3FB5712.html = Geopolitical hedging becoming more challenging for Asian countries.
ASTRA Risk: Security
Many countries in the region seek to strike a balance in their relations with China and the US, hesitant to ally too closely with one or the other, with this balance becoming more difficult as Sino-US tensions increase.
Also affects: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand & Solomon Islands.
HTMLText_F00B9B95_CFCE_A72C_41E4_7E69C10A585E.html = Great Lakes Conflict
ASTRA Risk: Security
Efforts to resolve M23 conflict fail, Rwanda bolsters support for M23, enabling them to capture Goma.
Also affects: Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Kenya, Angola & Tanzania.
HTMLText_F947ABD4_C86D_7872_41D0_377069CCF8A8.html = Growing militarisation of security forces.
ASTRA Risk: Security
State security forces empowered to enforce 'law and order'; frequent or systematic abuses of power; reflects the risk of arbitrary state seizure or other hinderances to private enterprise.
Also affects: El Salvador, Colombia & Peru.
HTMLText_CF324DFD_DCB2_1E84_41EB_77AFF0DE635F.html = Gulf economic diversification efforts
ASTRA Risk: Political
Continued push to achieve National Visions and progress on elements supporting economic diversification away from hydrocarbon revenues.
Also affects: United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain & Oman.
HTMLText_C552CAFD_D882_E3E6_41E2_08DEF7B018C1.html = Haiti military intervention.
ASTRA Risk: Security
International security mission deployment in Haiti.
Also affects: United States, Canada & Dominican Republic.
HTMLText_C5F1DCEE_DC52_1E84_419C_C6F690E0CE41.html = Heightened tensions ahead of elections
ASTRA Risk: Political
Elevated tensions ahead of elections exacerbating risks of ethno-religious conflict and opposition-led protests, driving insecurity and heightening threats to government stability.
Also affects: Ghana, South Africa, Mali & Chad.
HTMLText_C69CC663_D882_22E2_41CA_35CC7F0D9065.html = Human rights crisis in C. America.
ASTRA Risk: Governance
Significant uptick in human rights violations stemming from gang related crackdowns in Central America.
Also affects: Honduras, Guatemala & Haiti.
HTMLText_C5D66119_D883_DE2E_4185_C56456AC6126.html = Immigration crisis at the southern border of the US.
ASTRA Risk: Security
Surge in migration leading to major political and security reforms in the US and Mexico.
Also affects: Mexico, Panama & Guatemala.
HTMLText_CBE4394C_DCF6_2784_41D9_CD38FF615EC3.html = Impact of extreme weather on APAC.
ASTRA Risk: Health & Hazards
Elevated operational/socio-economic health/food security risks driven by more extreme droughts, monsoons and regular storms.
Also affects: Pakistan & Bangladesh.
HTMLText_EE9CB0BF_CDC7_E15C_41D0_F3D278852D55.html = Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War
ASTRA Risk: Security
Regional and global security, economic and political implications of a protracted, attritional war in Ukraine.
Also affects: Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, United Kingdom & Bulgaria.
HTMLText_E91BAE1C_CDC2_A15C_41DA_BB3448227036.html = Instability in the Balkans
ASTRA Risk: Political
Armed conflict between Kosovo and Serbia, unrest short of open war and conflict.
Also affects: Serbia.
HTMLText_C47FFFDD_DCD2_1A84_41E2_6E7C06733C3B.html = Inter-Korean tensions
ASTRA Risk: Security
Tensions between North and South Korea remain elevated amid occasional military threats and provocation, including North Korean missile launches and nuclear threats.
Also affects: South Korea, China, USA.
HTMLText_CEB9163F_DC4E_2D84_41E9_DBDABF6388AD.html = Iran-Israel 'shadow war'
ASTRA Risk: Security
Continued tit-for-tat confrontations resulting in targeted assassinations, martime attacks and cyber attacks, as well as fostering overall regional tensions.
Also affects: Iran, Syria & Lebanon.
HTMLText_C49A2EA7_DC72_7A84_41EA_2C6B96C95DFE.html = Israel-Hamas war regional spillover
ASTRA Risk: Political
Recent normalisation processes including Iran-Saudi Arabia, Syria-Arab League and progress on Israel-Saudi Arabia normalisation efforts have been complicated by the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, amid sustained concerns of regionalisation and escalation of the hostilities.
Also affects: Syria, Israel & US.
HTMLText_C4705F76_DC52_3B85_41C9_31CF28D42008.html = Israel-Saudi Arabia normalisation
ASTRA Risk: Political
Threats to Saudi-Iran rapprochement, rising regional tensions with Lebanon/Syria, unrest over perceived betrayal of Palestinians.
Also affects: Israel, Iran, Palestinian Territories, Lebanon & Syria.
HTMLText_F0013D33_CFCE_A364_41C7_E122B7D75AB3.html = Jihadist Spillover in Sahel
ASTRA Risk: Security
Continued deterioration in Mali and Burkina Faso enables jihadists to dedicate resources to establishing local presence in West African states.
Also affects: Benin, Togo, Ghana & Guinea.
HTMLText_C1D9E3C6_D89F_E222_41E9_BE01B7351A15.html = LGBTQI+ polarisation.
ASTRA Risk: Security
Entrenched partisanship on LGBTQI+ issues (incl. gender affirming care) yields policy changes, reputational risk, attacks.
Also affects: Georgia, Uganda & Canada
HTMLText_C4C20AC6_DCDE_1A85_41E1_961A22BD8F75.html = Labour disputes and disruption in the Americas.
ASTRA Risk: Political
Protracted labour contract negotiations, industrial action, and union mobilisation efforts trigger business disruption.
Also affects: Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Chile & Brazil.
HTMLText_C89A38B8_DCB2_668C_41CD_44E35C7BDEC4.html = Labour market changes
ASTRA Risk: Governance
Ongoing challenges to labour market flexibility and regulatory frameworks driving business uncertainty.
Also affects: Germany, United Kingdom, Poland & Spain
HTMLText_8E3F55D9_CFCF_6324_41D8_4343AA50EE1C.html = Leadership vacuum and contentious transition in the Palestinian Territories
ASTRA Risk: Political
Aging Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and the absence of a clear leadership transition highlight stability risks for the Palestinian Territories, which will be further exacerbated by the likely Fatah-Hamas infighting for control and a weakened Palestinian Authority.
Also affects: Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran, UAE & Qatar.
HTMLText_FB699D94_C865_18F1_41DF_C02D458E3AA9.html = Localised impacts of migration in Latin America.
ASTRA Risk: Political
Intra-regional migration (from places such as Venezuela, Uruguay and Bolivia) strain public services, raise localised domestic unrest risks and impact political stability.
Also affects: Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia & Uruguay.
HTMLText_C43F5C4F_D2C8_B9E0_41E4_E8A5476C4A9D.html = Malware operations
ASTRA RISK: Cyber
Malware operations continue to change to address changing threat landscape, with new malware being observed and existing malware being shared and developed amongst the dark web community.
HTMLText_E905E98E_C82F_78EE_41E5_11048762D93E.html = Myanmar's increasing isolation since the coup.
ASTRA Risk: Security
The junta has failed to secure effective control of the whole country, being opposed by armed militias internally and facing heavy sanctions and isolation from Western countries.
HTMLText_C10E6A11_DC52_259C_418C_2433D71176A6.html = Nuclear proliferation advancements in the Gulf and Iran
ASTRA Risk: Political
Amid sustained diversification efforts by Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom will continue to push for progress in its civilian nuclear programme, including on proliferation-sensitive elements like the enrichment of uranium. This will likely represent a driver for friction with regional countries, including Iran.
Also affects: Saudi Arabia.
HTMLText_E8501CFF_CDC2_E2DC_41C1_D6C8EEAAB855.html = Organised crime threats
ASTRA Risk: Criminal
Heightened corporate security risks in jurisdictions with high levels of organised, violent crime and politically-motivated attacks on businesses.
Also affects: Netherlands, Germany, Albania, Germany, Italy & Spain.
HTMLText_F33881A6_CFCF_A36D_41B8_010C53286419.html = Overwhelming Nigeria's security architecture
ASTRA Risk: Security
Risks to stability driven by multiple military operations across the country, organised criminal groups in the south, IPOB in the Southeast, armed groups/ bandits in the middle belt and northwest and jihadists across the middle belt and northeast. ON top of that a mounting threat of domestic unrest driven by deteriorating economic conditions
HTMLText_C4B151CB_DCF2_268C_41EB_456D4621DA84.html = Pakistan crisis.
ASTRA Risk: Political
Political unrest, economic crisis, socio-economic risks, rising threat of extremism and relations with AFG.
Also affects: Afghanistan.
HTMLText_CBCA60F7_DCF2_6684_41CC_63B207744160.html = Palestinian militants in the West Bank
ASTRA Risk: Security
Activities of Palestinian militants in the West Bank.
Also affects: Palestinian Territories
HTMLText_D3E22E3A_C823_3831_41E0_D5344230BF66.html = Pivotal elections in South Asia
ASTRA Risk: Security
Notable government stability, policy, domestic unrest risks in the run-up to fiercely contested elections in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh
Also affects: India & Pakistan.
HTMLText_C56324AC_DCB6_2E85_41C5_6D088C9BD525.html = Policy risks resulting from political polarisation
ASTRA Risk: Political
Far-right and far-left politics, its influence during elections and policy implications.
Also affects: United Kingdom, Belgium, Romania, Austria, Croatia, Lithuania, Slovakia, North Macedonia, Finland & Spain.
HTMLText_C6987B5A_D886_2222_41E1_BF1A96F5B8E6.html = Policy stagnation.
ASTRA Risk: Political
Intra-party conflict, lack of cohesion inhibits legislative processes.
HTMLText_F9D78992_C865_38F6_41DF_2A2B9CC0D3E9.html = Political instability and the stifling of civil society.
ASTRA Risk: Political
Government uses (extra)legal means to subvert democratic participation and processes, including but not limited to the banning or arbitrary detention of activists, dissidents and other groups engaged in government critique.
Also affects: Ecuador, El Salvador, Nicaragua & Venezuela.
HTMLText_F014DA1C_CFCE_A15C_41D4_5FD70C92436B.html = Post-electoral contestation
ASTRA Risk: Political
Political transitions and elections have broadly failed to produce governments capable of resolving political stalemates, driving economic reform or addressing long-standing public grievances. Similar challenges lay ahead of 2024 with contentions polls unlikely to improve operational environments.
Also affects: Tunisia.
HTMLText_C47BCB4E_DCD6_1B84_41D7_AD3B83AD2245.html = Protests and Repression in Iran
ASTRA Risk: Political
Continued rising anti-government sentiments and the regime's strategies and actions to repress such unrest.
HTMLText_C4B61303_DCB2_2B7C_41E4_E923ED4FB8F6.html = Radical activism and threats to corporate security
ASTRA Risk: Security
TTPs, targeting, campaigning, sectors vulnerable etc. Activism, and single-issue/far-left/OCG-led sabotage against assets (non-state actors).
Also affects: France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Austria, Greece & Italy.
HTMLText_C427DA99_D2C8_B960_41A7_F20C36BB87C6.html = Ransomware and Ransomware-as-a-Service
ASTRA RISK: Cyber
Ransomware and Raas continue to be a persistent threat to organisations globally, conducting double-extortion attacks leaking sensitive data.
HTMLText_C64C65C9_D8BE_662E_41CB_273C477F47AD.html = Regime Change in Russia
ASTRA Risk: Political
The possibility of a coup in Russia or a change of power after the 2024 presidential election.
HTMLText_8E8B789E_CFCE_A15C_41E4_6F78098BC8EE.html = Resumption of Tigray conflict
ASTRA Risk: Political
Negotiations breakdown, TPLF or constituent factions return to conflict, Eritrea re-enters, humanitarian crisis.
Also affects: Eritrea.
HTMLText_C412C560_DC4E_2FBC_41E2_6E088EE242AC.html = Resurgence of militant and non-state armed groups in conflict-sensitive environments
ASTRA Risk: Security
Heightened unrest, inter-state armed confrontations and internal power struggles are increasing recruitment and territorial expansion opportunities for jihadist and other armed groups across the region.
Also affects: Yemen & Libya.
HTMLText_C64C85CF_D8BE_6622_41E6_3BB870D4285B.html = Russia-Belarus Unification
ASTRA Risk: Political
Integration between Russia and Belarus to form a Union State.
Also affects: Belarus.
HTMLText_C46C1ED0_DC56_7A9C_41D4_2111B759865B.html = Russian military engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa
ASTRA Risk: Security
Russian attempts to expand military engagement and impact of that engagement, increased threat of authoritarianism, human rights abuses, war crimes.
Also affects: Central African Republic, Libya, Sudan, Burkina Faso & Niger.
HTMLText_CF70F1B6_DCB1_E684_41E5_872A6658191E.html = Saudi Arabia-Iran rapprochement
ASTRA Risk: Political
Trajectory of normalisation will have significant impacts on regional diplomatic and security dynamics
Also affects: Saudi Arabia
HTMLText_F0CE4AE0_CFC2_E6E4_419B_C13336C7D637.html = Shifting governance standards and repression of rights in Tunisia
ASTRA Risk: Political
Catch all risks associated with rising authoritarianism in Tunisia, amidst socio-economic turmoil and rising repression to address domestic unrest.
HTMLText_C4B1B1C9_DCF2_268C_41E5_861030B5CE5A.html = Socio-economic issues affecting political and social stability.
ASTRA Risk: Security
Rising inflation and food/energy insecurity trigger economic crisis, anti-government protests/domestic unrest.
Also affects: Sri Lanka & Bangladesh.
HTMLText_C8699DAA_D248_BAA0_41E6_2747D2D57731.html = Software Supply chain exploitation
Increased activity abusing technology supply chain of organisations to conduct cyber campaigns.
HTMLText_C9D95B28_D248_BFA0_41E7_46A90FA7176E.html = Software Supply chain exploitation
Increased activity abusing technology supply chain of organisations to conduct cyber campaigns.
HTMLText_C86C307C_D248_A9A0_41D8_29D9042482E4.html = Software Supply chain exploitation
Increased activity abusing technology supply chain of organisations to conduct cyber campaigns.
HTMLText_C5E0AC1E_D2C9_9960_41AD_35F6738DFAA2.html = Software Supply chain exploitation
ASTRA RISK: Cyber
Increased activity abusing technology supply chain of organisations to conduct cyber campaigns.
HTMLText_C1559B85_D882_2221_41E1_03DF83EA3983.html = South China Sea Disputes.
ASTRA Risk: Security
Competing territorial claims in the South China Sea.
Also affects: Vietnam, USA & Philippines.
HTMLText_C43CBDDA_D2C8_BAE0_41E3_51DF2DD0F836.html = State-sponsored APT groups
ASTRA RISK: Cyber
State-sponsored APT groups continue conducting cyber espionage operations for strategic interests.
HTMLText_C5C2B836_DCB6_2584_41C9_9D8070504E22.html = State-sponsored espionage and sabotage threats
ASTRA Risk: Security
Russian, Iranian, Chinese etc. sabotage threats across Europe.
Also affects: United Kingdom, France, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Russia, Belarus, Iran, China & Bulgaria.
HTMLText_C4330F7A_D2C8_B7A0_41E3_7613E5664863.html = TTPs evolving to address Cyber threat landscape
ASTRA RISK: Cyber
Threat actors changing TTPs to address changes to cyber security landscape to combat threats.
HTMLText_C43A7CA7_DCD2_3E84_41C6_15B729841586.html = Tech scrutiny
ASTRA Risk: Political
Policymakers, regulators and general public raise scrutiny of tech platforms.
Also affects: Canada, EU, United Kingdom, France, Germany & Ireland.
HTMLText_FC22EEB7_D2D9_96A0_41B4_23AF92B13391.html = The strengthening of organised crime in Latin American
ASTRA Risk: Criminality
HTMLText_C1DA03BE_D89F_E262_41DC_B684BAD14695.html = Threats to electricity grid.
ASTRA Risk: Security
Significant power outage caused by extremist attack and/or severe weather event.
Also affects: Germany
HTMLText_F3D7D471_CFCF_A1E4_41DE_37831B97F198.html = Vulnerability to severe weather patterns and natural disasters in MEA
ASTRA Risk: Security
High casualty rates as a result of earthquakes and flooding have highlighted the continued vulnerability of regional states, compounded by their limited preparedness and capacity to respond to such incidents.
Also affects: Morocco, Turkey, Mozambique & Madagascar.
HTMLText_EB2C2979_CDC6_A3E7_41E1_82E22A5ED500.html = War and peace in the South Caucasus
ASTRA Risk: Political
The prospect of a resumption of armed conflict or progress towards a peaceful settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Also affects: Azerbaijan, Russia & Iran.
HTMLText_C69FBFD9_D882_222E_41BA_DB61F3E637A8.html = Weapons and human smuggling proliferation
ASTRA Risk: Security
Uptick in human and weapons smuggling from Ukraine, increased risks of sporadic attacks by sole-perpetrators
Also affects: Poland, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania & Balkans.
HTMLText_C42CA4CC_DCB3_EE84_41DD_317C5C18E1C1.html = Eurasian elections in the backdrop of war
ASTRA Risk: Political
Russian, Ukrainian and Moldovan presidential elections, Georgian and Belarusian parliamentary elections, in 2024; as well as the implications of the US presidential election on the region.
Also affects: Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova & Belarus.
HTMLText_CBEF694D_DCF6_2784_41E2_0E54918A5E65.html =
Rising ethno-religious tensions in South Asia.
ASTRA Risk: Political
Elevated tensions, vigilantism, communal violence between various ethnic and religious groups in India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
Also affects: Pakistan & Sri Lanka
HTMLText_C2E9AE14_DC52_1D84_41BF_432EB272AC05.html =
Transnational repression.
ASTRA Risk: Political
Governments target dissidents and/or public figures outside of its borders with harassment, threats of violence or murder to silence dissent or messages that otherwise contradict government doctrine.
Also affects: Saudi Arabia, Turkey & Canada.
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### Description
### Title
tour.name = SIBYLLINE_RISK