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Armenia
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Bangladesh
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Belguim
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Brazil
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Bulgaria
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China
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Colombia
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Cote d'ivoire
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Democratic Republic of Congo
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Egypt
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El Salvador
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Ethiopia
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France
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Georgia
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Germany
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Global
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Global
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Global
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India
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Iran
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Israel
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Kosovo
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Libya
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MENAT
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MENAT
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Mali
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Mexico
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Myanmar
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Nigeria
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North Korea


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Pakistan
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Palastine
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Saudi Arabia
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Senegal
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Singapore
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Somalia
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South Africa
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Sudan
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Syria
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Turkey
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USA
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Ukraine
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United Kingdom
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Venezuela
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Getting Started
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European divestment and de-risking
ASTRA Risk: Political


Efforts to de-risk European economies, including issues around ongoing dependency on Chinese imports and Russian energy.
Also affects: Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Poland, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, Serbia, Bulgaria &Romania.
HTMLText_CF5FA70F_DCB6_6B84_41E9_740E9B287851.html =
Future of the Caliphate
ASTRA Risk: Security


Islamic State and affiliates continue to carry out a resilient insurgency, sustaining security volatility and physical risks.
Also affects: Iraq.
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Limited capacity to address severe weather events and natural disasters
ASTRA Risk: Political


Increasing threats emanating from extreme weather events including droughts, floods, wild fires and earthquakes, and limited financial capacity to prepare and quickly recover from such events.


Also affects: Morocco, Libya & Syria.
HTMLText_C5006311_DC52_2B9C_41E0_58EDA19ACE40.html =
Opposition unrest in Senegal
ASTRA Risk: Political


Unrest among PASTEF and Ousmane Sonko supporters ahead of the February 2024 polls.
HTMLText_C1073309_DC5E_6B8C_41E9_9583432FB714.html =
2024 US elections.
ASTRA Risk: Political


Presidential, state and local elections raise political polarisation, social tensions and likelihood of unrest; major policy shifts likely; possibility of contested electoral outcomes.
Also affects: Mexico, El Salvador, Panama, Venezuela, Dominican Republic & Paraguay.
HTMLText_C603DC34_D886_2666_41E3_11B4423DEE2C.html =
Amazon Green Crisis.
ASTRA Risk: Political


Surge in climate related events affecting the Amazon Basin.
Also affects: Colombia, Ecuador & Venezuela.
HTMLText_C4474FF3_DC76_1A9C_41C1_5B287E3391DC.html =
Broadening national security concept.
ASTRA Risk: Governance


Widening concerns relating to national security driven by competing geopolitical order.
Also affects: USA, EU, UK, Australia, Taiwan, Hong Kong & India.
HTMLText_C5CEF895_DCBE_E684_41D9_BA7B52AFE7AA.html =
CBRN escalation and proliferation
ASTRA Risk: Security


The risk of chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) escalation in the war in Ukraine, as well as other global hotspots like North Korea and Iran.
Also affects: North Korea, Iran, Ukraine, Israel, United States, United Kingdom, India, Pakistan, France & China.
HTMLText_FE88A3A7_D2C8_AEA0_41CB_A38516F59230.html =
Captagon crisis
ASTRA Risk: Criminality


Uptick in trafficking, arrests and seizures underscores continued to foster instability.
HTMLText_CB311538_DCF6_EF8C_41DE_064486B952E1.html =
Changing Face of Peacekeeping
ASTRA Risk: Security


Continued tensions between peacekeeping forces and host governments, particularly those allied with PMCs. The rise in regional peacekeeping efforts and increasingly aggressive/partisan mandates for deployed forces, particularly states with low military capacity.
Also affects: Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia & South Sudan.
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China's economic slowdown
ASTRA Risk: Political, Governance.


China's lacklustre post-pandemic recovery, with the economy facing series of domestic, external challenges, compounded by structural problems
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China's economic slowdown
ASTRA RISK: Political & Governance


China's lacklustre post-pandemic recovery, with the economy facing series of domestic, external challenges, compounded by structural problems
HTMLText_C62BCA66_D882_62E2_41AB_C4EA461C5051.html =
China-India border disputes shaping bilateral relations.
ASTRA Risk: Security


Sustained tensions and occasional clashes/escalation at Line of Actual Control (LAC) which could deteriorate bilateral relations, affecting trade and investment.
Also affects: India.
HTMLText_C4829CF6_DCB2_1E84_41E7_894306C49D34.html =
China-US competition for influence in APAC.
ASTAR Risk: Security


China and the US (and its allies) competing for geopolitical, economic and security influence in the Asia-Pacific region .
Also affects: USA, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan & Solomon Islands.
HTMLText_C6500FA2_D882_6263_41D7_34931D3CFEB1.html =
China-US tech competition.
ASTRA Risk: Political


US curb on key tech, and tit-for-tat measures from China.
Also affects: USA, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan & Netherlands.
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Complex migration challenges in the Middle East and Africa
ASTRA Risk: Governance


Humanitarian and complex crises, as well as climate-related events will drive the internal (and external) displacement/movement of people within sustaining pressures on host communities and increasing the likelihood of instability.
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Corruption in Africa's Energy Sector
ASTRA Risk: Political


Repeated blackouts caused by heavy indebtedness and poor management of South Africa and Nigeria's power grids.
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Cross-strait Tensions.
ASTRA Risk: Security


Tensions in the Taiwan Strait and risk of armed conflict over Taiwan.
Also affects: USA, Taiwan & Japan.
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Data Protection regulations
ASTRA RISK: Cyber


Data protection regulations being implemented as laws in more countries/US states, increases financial penalties for data breaches.
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Democratic backsliding, rise of strongmen in SSA
ASTRA Risk: Security


The rise of military governments and resulting instability associated with that trend.
Also affects: Burkina Faso.
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Deteriorating governance standards in Europe and Eurasia
ASTRA Risk: Governance


Democratic backsliding, ailing governance standards and precarious reform programmes as they impact European integration efforts and business environment


Also affects: Armenia, Ukraine, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Russia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Montenegro, Albania & Serbia.
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Drone loitering munitions proliferation
ASTRA Risk: Security


Uptick in the use of drones in several theatres including Yemen, as well as in the maritime sphere in the Gulf.
Also affects: Yemen, Lebanon, Israel & Saudi Arabia.
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Drug crisis in the United States.
ASTRA Risk: Political


Prevalent drug use/abuse impacts socio-economic health; concerns over drug trafficking/production; impacts bilateral relations with Mexico, China.
Also affects: Mexico & China.
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Drug production surge.
ASTRA Risk: Criminal


Large uptick in narcotics production stemming from ongoing Peace Process in Colombia.
Also affects: United States, Peru & Mexico.
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Enduring implications of Brexit
ASTRA Risk: Political


Brexit-specific developments, impacting both the UK, Ireland and EU.
Also affects: Ireland, France, Germany & Belgium.
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European migrant crisis
ASTRA Risk: Security


Uptick in illegal migrants drives internal EU divisions, threat of xenophobic attacks.
Also affects: Greece, Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Hungary, Austria, Germany, Czech Republic, Slovakia & United Kingdom.
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Evolving geopolitical dynamics in Northeast Asia
ASTRA Risk: Security


Northeast Asia faces a variety and complex security issues, including territorial disputes, growing naval presence and North Korea's missile and nuclear threats among others.
Also affects: South Korea, China, Japan, USA & Taiwan.
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Expanding securitisation of commerce and trade
ASTRA RISK: Political


Broadening national security concerns amid evolving geopolitical tensions increasingly affect economic activities.
Also affects: Japan, US, Hong Kong, Taiwan & EU.
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Exploitation of software vulnerabilities
ASTRA RISK: Cyber


Increased utilisation of vulnerabilitites and zero-day vulnerabilities as an attack vector by various threat actors to sustain operations.
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Factional conflict in Sudan
ASTRA Risk: Security


Failure to manage integration of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) into military results in conflict between RSF and military.
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Fallout from Somalia's al-Shabaab campaign
ASTRA Risk: Security


Tracking the risks emanating from Somalia's offensive efforts against al-Shabaab, intensifying levels of conflict as the group attempts to counter offensive operations.


Also affects: Ethiopia & Kenya.
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Far-right insurrection and civil unrest
ASTRA Risk: Security


Continued uptick in anti-state far-right extremism and disruptive civil unrest.
Also affects: France.
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Freedom and religion driving tensions between Western and Islamic world
ASTRA Risk: Security


Tracking threat of unrest, attacks, policy risk and regional tensions driven by acts deemed blasphemous by Islamic world.


Also affects: Turkey, Egypt, Sweden, Netherlands & Denmark.
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Geopolitical hedging becoming more challenging for Asian countries.
ASTRA Risk: Security


Many countries in the region seek to strike a balance in their relations with China and the US, hesitant to ally too closely with one or the other, with this balance becoming more difficult as Sino-US tensions increase.


Also affects: Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand & Solomon Islands.
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Great Lakes Conflict
ASTRA Risk: Security


Efforts to resolve M23 conflict fail, Rwanda bolsters support for M23, enabling them to capture Goma.


Also affects: Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, Kenya, Angola & Tanzania.
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Growing militarisation of security forces.
ASTRA Risk: Security


State security forces empowered to enforce 'law and order'; frequent or systematic abuses of power; reflects the risk of arbitrary state seizure or other hinderances to private enterprise.
Also affects: El Salvador, Colombia & Peru.
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Gulf economic diversification efforts
ASTRA Risk: Political


Continued push to achieve National Visions and progress on elements supporting economic diversification away from hydrocarbon revenues.
Also affects: United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain & Oman.
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Haiti military intervention.
ASTRA Risk: Security


International security mission deployment in Haiti.
Also affects: United States, Canada & Dominican Republic.
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Heightened tensions ahead of elections
ASTRA Risk: Political


Elevated tensions ahead of elections exacerbating risks of ethno-religious conflict and opposition-led protests, driving insecurity and heightening threats to government stability.
Also affects: Ghana, South Africa, Mali & Chad.
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Human rights crisis in C. America.
ASTRA Risk: Governance


Significant uptick in human rights violations stemming from gang related crackdowns in Central America.
Also affects: Honduras, Guatemala & Haiti.
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Immigration crisis at the southern border of the US.
ASTRA Risk: Security


Surge in migration leading to major political and security reforms in the US and Mexico.
Also affects: Mexico, Panama & Guatemala.
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Impact of extreme weather on APAC.
ASTRA Risk: Health & Hazards


Elevated operational/socio-economic health/food security risks driven by more extreme droughts, monsoons and regular storms.
Also affects: Pakistan & Bangladesh.
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Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War
ASTRA Risk: Security


Regional and global security, economic and political implications of a protracted, attritional war in Ukraine.
Also affects: Russia, Belarus, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, United Kingdom & Bulgaria.
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Instability in the Balkans
ASTRA Risk: Political


Armed conflict between Kosovo and Serbia, unrest short of open war and conflict.
Also affects: Serbia.
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Inter-Korean tensions
ASTRA Risk: Security


Tensions between North and South Korea remain elevated amid occasional military threats and provocation, including North Korean missile launches and nuclear threats.
Also affects: South Korea, China, USA.
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Iran-Israel 'shadow war'
ASTRA Risk: Security


Continued tit-for-tat confrontations resulting in targeted assassinations, martime attacks and cyber attacks, as well as fostering overall regional tensions.
Also affects: Iran, Syria & Lebanon.
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Israel-Hamas war regional spillover
ASTRA Risk: Political


Recent normalisation processes including Iran-Saudi Arabia, Syria-Arab League and progress on Israel-Saudi Arabia normalisation efforts have been complicated by the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, amid sustained concerns of regionalisation and escalation of the hostilities.
Also affects: Syria, Israel & US.
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Israel-Saudi Arabia normalisation
ASTRA Risk: Political


Threats to Saudi-Iran rapprochement, rising regional tensions with Lebanon/Syria, unrest over perceived betrayal of Palestinians.
Also affects: Israel, Iran, Palestinian Territories, Lebanon & Syria.
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Jihadist Spillover in Sahel
ASTRA Risk: Security


Continued deterioration in Mali and Burkina Faso enables jihadists to dedicate resources to establishing local presence in West African states.


Also affects: Benin, Togo, Ghana & Guinea.
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LGBTQI+ polarisation.
ASTRA Risk: Security


Entrenched partisanship on LGBTQI+ issues (incl. gender affirming care) yields policy changes, reputational risk, attacks.
Also affects: Georgia, Uganda & Canada
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Labour disputes and disruption in the Americas.
ASTRA Risk: Political


Protracted labour contract negotiations, industrial action, and union mobilisation efforts trigger business disruption.
Also affects: Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Peru, Chile & Brazil.
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Labour market changes
ASTRA Risk: Governance


Ongoing challenges to labour market flexibility and regulatory frameworks driving business uncertainty.
Also affects: Germany, United Kingdom, Poland & Spain
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Leadership vacuum and contentious transition in the Palestinian Territories
ASTRA Risk: Political


Aging Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and the absence of a clear leadership transition highlight stability risks for the Palestinian Territories, which will be further exacerbated by the likely Fatah-Hamas infighting for control and a weakened Palestinian Authority.


Also affects: Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran, UAE & Qatar.
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Localised impacts of migration in Latin America.
ASTRA Risk: Political


Intra-regional migration (from places such as Venezuela, Uruguay and Bolivia) strain public services, raise localised domestic unrest risks and impact political stability.
Also affects: Chile, Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia & Uruguay.
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Malware operations
ASTRA RISK: Cyber


Malware operations continue to change to address changing threat landscape, with new malware being observed and existing malware being shared and developed amongst the dark web community.



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Myanmar's increasing isolation since the coup.
ASTRA Risk: Security


The junta has failed to secure effective control of the whole country, being opposed by armed militias internally and facing heavy sanctions and isolation from Western countries.
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Nuclear proliferation advancements in the Gulf and Iran
ASTRA Risk: Political


Amid sustained diversification efforts by Saudi Arabia, the Kingdom will continue to push for progress in its civilian nuclear programme, including on proliferation-sensitive elements like the enrichment of uranium. This will likely represent a driver for friction with regional countries, including Iran.
Also affects: Saudi Arabia.
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Organised crime threats
ASTRA Risk: Criminal


Heightened corporate security risks in jurisdictions with high levels of organised, violent crime and politically-motivated attacks on businesses.
Also affects: Netherlands, Germany, Albania, Germany, Italy & Spain.
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Overwhelming Nigeria's security architecture
ASTRA Risk: Security


Risks to stability driven by multiple military operations across the country, organised criminal groups in the south, IPOB in the Southeast, armed groups/ bandits in the middle belt and northwest and jihadists across the middle belt and northeast. ON top of that a mounting threat of domestic unrest driven by deteriorating economic conditions
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Pakistan crisis.
ASTRA Risk: Political


Political unrest, economic crisis, socio-economic risks, rising threat of extremism and relations with AFG.
Also affects: Afghanistan.
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Palestinian militants in the West Bank
ASTRA Risk: Security


Activities of Palestinian militants in the West Bank.
Also affects: Palestinian Territories
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Pivotal elections in South Asia
ASTRA Risk: Security


Notable government stability, policy, domestic unrest risks in the run-up to fiercely contested elections in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh
Also affects: India & Pakistan.
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Policy risks resulting from political polarisation
ASTRA Risk: Political


Far-right and far-left politics, its influence during elections and policy implications.
Also affects: United Kingdom, Belgium, Romania, Austria, Croatia, Lithuania, Slovakia, North Macedonia, Finland & Spain.


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Policy stagnation.
ASTRA Risk: Political


Intra-party conflict, lack of cohesion inhibits legislative processes.
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Political instability and the stifling of civil society.
ASTRA Risk: Political


Government uses (extra)legal means to subvert democratic participation and processes, including but not limited to the banning or arbitrary detention of activists, dissidents and other groups engaged in government critique.
Also affects: Ecuador, El Salvador, Nicaragua & Venezuela.
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Post-electoral contestation
ASTRA Risk: Political


Political transitions and elections have broadly failed to produce governments capable of resolving political stalemates, driving economic reform or addressing long-standing public grievances. Similar challenges lay ahead of 2024 with contentions polls unlikely to improve operational environments.


Also affects: Tunisia.
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Protests and Repression in Iran
ASTRA Risk: Political


Continued rising anti-government sentiments and the regime's strategies and actions to repress such unrest.
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Radical activism and threats to corporate security
ASTRA Risk: Security


TTPs, targeting, campaigning, sectors vulnerable etc. Activism, and single-issue/far-left/OCG-led sabotage against assets (non-state actors).
Also affects: France, Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Austria, Greece & Italy.
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Ransomware and Ransomware-as-a-Service
ASTRA RISK: Cyber


Ransomware and Raas continue to be a persistent threat to organisations globally, conducting double-extortion attacks leaking sensitive data.
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Regime Change in Russia
ASTRA Risk: Political


The possibility of a coup in Russia or a change of power after the 2024 presidential election.
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Resumption of Tigray conflict
ASTRA Risk: Political


Negotiations breakdown, TPLF or constituent factions return to conflict, Eritrea re-enters, humanitarian crisis.


Also affects: Eritrea.
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Resurgence of militant and non-state armed groups in conflict-sensitive environments
ASTRA Risk: Security


Heightened unrest, inter-state armed confrontations and internal power struggles are increasing recruitment and territorial expansion opportunities for jihadist and other armed groups across the region.
Also affects: Yemen & Libya.
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Russia-Belarus Unification
ASTRA Risk: Political


Integration between Russia and Belarus to form a Union State.
Also affects: Belarus.
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Russian military engagement in Sub-Saharan Africa
ASTRA Risk: Security


Russian attempts to expand military engagement and impact of that engagement, increased threat of authoritarianism, human rights abuses, war crimes.
Also affects: Central African Republic, Libya, Sudan, Burkina Faso & Niger.
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Saudi Arabia-Iran rapprochement
ASTRA Risk: Political


Trajectory of normalisation will have significant impacts on regional diplomatic and security dynamics
Also affects: Saudi Arabia
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Shifting governance standards and repression of rights in Tunisia
ASTRA Risk: Political


Catch all risks associated with rising authoritarianism in Tunisia, amidst socio-economic turmoil and rising repression to address domestic unrest.
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Socio-economic issues affecting political and social stability.
ASTRA Risk: Security


Rising inflation and food/energy insecurity trigger economic crisis, anti-government protests/domestic unrest.
Also affects: Sri Lanka & Bangladesh.
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Software Supply chain exploitation


Increased activity abusing technology supply chain of organisations to conduct cyber campaigns.
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Software Supply chain exploitation


Increased activity abusing technology supply chain of organisations to conduct cyber campaigns.
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Software Supply chain exploitation


Increased activity abusing technology supply chain of organisations to conduct cyber campaigns.
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Software Supply chain exploitation
ASTRA RISK: Cyber


Increased activity abusing technology supply chain of organisations to conduct cyber campaigns.
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South China Sea Disputes.
ASTRA Risk: Security


Competing territorial claims in the South China Sea.
Also affects: Vietnam, USA & Philippines.
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State-sponsored APT groups
ASTRA RISK: Cyber


State-sponsored APT groups continue conducting cyber espionage operations for strategic interests.
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State-sponsored espionage and sabotage threats
ASTRA Risk: Security


Russian, Iranian, Chinese etc. sabotage threats across Europe.
Also affects: United Kingdom, France, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland, Russia, Belarus, Iran, China & Bulgaria.
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TTPs evolving to address Cyber threat landscape
ASTRA RISK: Cyber


Threat actors changing TTPs to address changes to cyber security landscape to combat threats.
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Tech scrutiny
ASTRA Risk: Political


Policymakers, regulators and general public raise scrutiny of tech platforms.
Also affects: Canada, EU, United Kingdom, France, Germany & Ireland.
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The strengthening of organised crime in Latin American
ASTRA Risk: Criminality
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Threats to electricity grid.
ASTRA Risk: Security


Significant power outage caused by extremist attack and/or severe weather event.
Also affects: Germany
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Vulnerability to severe weather patterns and natural disasters in MEA
ASTRA Risk: Security


High casualty rates as a result of earthquakes and flooding have highlighted the continued vulnerability of regional states, compounded by their limited preparedness and capacity to respond to such incidents.


Also affects: Morocco, Turkey, Mozambique & Madagascar.
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War and peace in the South Caucasus
ASTRA Risk: Political


The prospect of a resumption of armed conflict or progress towards a peaceful settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan.


Also affects: Azerbaijan, Russia & Iran.
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Weapons and human smuggling proliferation
ASTRA Risk: Security


Uptick in human and weapons smuggling from Ukraine, increased risks of sporadic attacks by sole-perpetrators
Also affects: Poland, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania & Balkans.
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Eurasian elections in the backdrop of war
ASTRA Risk: Political


Russian, Ukrainian and Moldovan presidential elections, Georgian and Belarusian parliamentary elections, in 2024; as well as the implications of the US presidential election on the region.
Also affects: Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova & Belarus.
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Rising ethno-religious tensions in South Asia.
ASTRA Risk: Political


Elevated tensions, vigilantism, communal violence between various ethnic and religious groups in India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
Also affects: Pakistan & Sri Lanka
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Transnational repression.
ASTRA Risk: Political


Governments target dissidents and/or public figures outside of its borders with harassment, threats of violence or murder to silence dissent or messages that otherwise contradict government doctrine.
Also affects: Saudi Arabia, Turkey & Canada.
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